Published on July 11, 2013 by AIA P&F Bulletin
Good
News? “Tracking AIA’s architecture billings index
shows continued strength in construction.
January was a good month for the architectural profession, possibly the
best month since the beginning of the financial crisis and recession.” (Architect magazine)
Finally…good news. But wait, do long-term global trends bear
good news for architects? Consider just a few of the impacts and changes
brought by the information age.
 |
Jaron Lanier
http://ideas.time.com/contributor/jaron-lanier/ |
·
Free
Internet access – but is it really free?
Siren servers using algorithms know much more about you then you care to
admit. Information is flowing to a few
(Amazon, Google, Apple, plus financial institutions). New technology has allowed the leaders to
skirt (or get ahead of) outdated regulations (1987’s Black Monday, Long-Term
Capital, and Enron).
INFORMATION = POWER and wealth. Consider the rapid flow of wealth to a few,
and the shrinking middle-class.
Read “Who Owns the Future”, by Jaron
Lanier.
·
Bye,
bye mom and pop stores. Make way for big
boxes. Walmart analyzes information on
you and your buying needs/desires. They
understand the most you will pay for a ‘good deal’. And they shop the world for the cheapest
manufacturing (and shipping) of those goods.
 |
| http://mg312.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/walmart-movie-posters1.jpg |
·
Music
industry – how can today’s artist survive when recordings are easily copied,
for free?
·
Medical
profession – today, doctors are working for Kaiser, rather than deal with the
headaches of private practice, collections, insurance claims, and liabilities. How can they possibly keep up with the rapid
advances of science, medicine and new technology?
·
An
ever-increasing proportion of graduate architects are working for the
government, private corporations, and entertainment.
·
Global
shifts in attitudes toward materials and infrastructure (think global warming
and sustainability).
The massing of wealth comes
with having the best information. If
Walmart knows what the customer wants in a particular region, and they know
where the goods can be made cheapest in the world, and how to get those goods
here for less than others, they win. Google
is doing it. And Apple, and all the
other successful companies crunching numbers in Silicon
Valley. They are getting
information from you and me, free, as we use our Smart Phones. What our desires are, our habits, our
impulses. They use massive computers and
algorithms, constantly absorbing more and more information. That information guides marketing, and so
forth.
What
Does This Have to do With Architecture? Think of how we design today, and in fact
how architects have designed forever. We
use intuition and our experience to
organize uses and circulation.
Structures, electrical and HVAC systems are designed by our colleagues,
the engineers. We determine the style,
usually following the “form givers”, the magazines, or possibly our clients’
own whims about what their “palace” should look like. It’s a lot like “haut couture” in the fashion world.
Now imagine if we could
take the information tools the “1%” use to control our lives, and apply them to
every facet of our design processes.
Architects would ask the questions that guide our design decisions --
program questions, site questions, information about building materials,
materials performance, etc. Analytical
tools would run algorithms to gather all this information to guide architects
in a new INFORMED WORLD. By collectively
sharing our findings, we would slowly gather intelligent building blocks, and
begin to truly optimize our designs.
Our research may find that
a new building is not the best choice.
Maybe an existing building could be programmed and modified to
accommodate the need. Maybe the way our
client runs her business can be changed.
In the first chapter of
Cheryl Sandberg’s book “Lean In”, she asks “What would you do if you weren’t
afraid?” While her book seems to be
about balancing work and family, the question can resonate with our whole
profession. We’ve been battered for five
years. We’re afraid of losing our jobs,
of meeting payroll, of paying bills, and wondering how we can ever retire. And we’re afraid others are encroaching on
our profession. Think design-build. Think about the fee cutting, the frugal
attitudes of our clients. This is life
in the 21st century.
And
Think About the Ratio of Architect’s Fees To Construction Costs, and Building
Operations – A-E fees
are 10% of construction cost. Yet the
decisions we make can make or break a building owner. I don’t know the numbers, but the cost of
operating a building over a building’s lifetime – 50 years plus, must be 100 x,
or more than our fee. And what if the
building location, size, organization, etc. is wrong.
I designed a building
for Lockheed in Sunnyvale
30 years ago – 200,000 SF. No expense
was spared to build in flexibility.
Raised floors, long spans, big floor-to-floor dimensions. The building is gone. Demolished. Property sold to a Silicon Valley giant.
Lockheed’s needs had changed. And
the developer valued the location, the land.
The value of informed
decisions by architects is huge. What we
design today is largely intuitive and “follow-the-leader” design. Our clients may mimic what the first-man-in
did. But timing is everything, and the
followers may be too late. We just have
to look to Dubai
and today’s empty buildings. Eight years
ago there seemed to be no stopping them.
If we could design
INTELLIGENTLY, our value as architects would be huge. If we could demonstrate that our knowledge
brings huge first-cost savings, and substantial reduction in operating costs,
our fees could soar. Don’t worry. The fashion aspects of our profession will
not go away. But the underlying
substance of our designs – the decisions to build or remodel, to optimize the
size and organization, and the innovation of our building systems could be
immensely improved.
The sea change will start
in schools, at MIT with cooperation between computer programmers and
architects. And maybe in Silicon Valley and Stanford, when they discover the
immense opportunities in the building industry.
It won’t start with the AIA. Or
with the ‘old guys’. They are afraid of
change. They resist change. They don’t want to share. They will be secretive to their graves.
The Good
Old Days
– Not one to talk about how good it was in the past, but I do remember the
benefits of one large Los Angeles-based A-E firm I worked for in the
60s-70s. Company-owned cars washed and
serviced by the office manager and his staff.
Secretaries for VPs and partners.
First-class air travel. A company
chef, preparing lunch for the partners every day. And in our 20’s, we made enough to vacation
in Europe each summer AND buy a home.
But it wasn’t sweet for everyone. Don’t forget the rows of draftsmen supervised
by the Chief Draftsman. “Asses and
elbows”, is what they expected. And few
professional women and minorities.
The cost of setting up an office
was minimal. Pencils, a few sawhorses
and doors, and you were in business.
Models
of Today’s Firms - Some
things haven’t changed:
·
Economy
of scale
·
The
advantages of specialization
·
The
value of relationships
Small Firms
What they offer: It’s all about relationships, ‘hands on’,
personal service. Responsive. Flexible.
What’s their risk,
vulnerabilities? Tough to compete with
large firms, lacking depth, knowledge.
Cost of doing business (hardware, software, marketing, classes,
memberships) in proportion to revenue is excessive.
Medium-sized Firms
What they offer: Specialization. Knowledge.
These are the “school firms”, designers of high-end custom homes, and
multi-family residential.
What’s their risk,
vulnerabilities? They lack
diversity. These are the guys that
really take a hit when the economy crashes.
Recessions put the brakes on public funding, and residential financing.
Large Firms
What they offer: Knowledge in several building types. You have diversity and specialization. The ability to have specialized staff, with
exceptional knowledge. Connections in
the race for more work. Revenues to
support extraordinary marketing efforts (i.e. competitions and fee-cutting).
What’s their risk,
vulnerabilities? A large payroll, and
poor management. As the giant jobs
shrink, you have to chase many smaller jobs.
Inefficiencies that can be absorbed due to economy of scale, can catch
up with you.
OLD
SCHOOL- Every Architectural Student’s Dream - In school, we dreamed of having our own practice and
DESIGNING. Upon graduation, the real
world begins to hit us in the face.
I was a partner in a large firm,
and understand the merits, and the challenges.
Too many meetings and travel,
and considerable bureaucracy. It seems
unavoidable.
The greatest rewards for me as
an architect in a small practice have been developing relationships with clients –hands-on, personal relationships. In a small practice, we each share a larger
portion of the credit or a successful project.
So, how does a small firm
survive? This may be your last chance
for a modest living.
1. Understand what’s going on – See “7
Reasons Architecture (As We Know It) Is over” by Steve Mouzon; “Who Owns the
Future”, by Jaron Lanier; and “Steve Jobs”, by Walter Isaacson. Adapting to the new reality is the key.
2. Prepare a clear plan for the future – Where
do you want to go? What role does each
person in your office have in reaching your destination?
3. Develop individual knowledge leaders in your
office – Join the professional organization serving that area of knowledge, and
participate. Use national resources
like AIA’s Knowledge Communities, BRIK (newly formed by the National Institute
of Building Science), and NCEF. AIA says
only 6% of member firms offer research as a service.
4. Seek natural, common-sense economies like
sharing staff, and office equipment. This means finding a firm with similar
goals you can form a long-term relationship with.
5. Selectively choose business opportunities
you have a realistic chance of competing for.
This may be enhanced by teaming with the firm you are sharing staff and
equipment with.
6. Bring real benefits to your clients, like:
 |
Kimon Onuma
http://www.boiledarchitecture.com/
wp-content/uploads/2012/07/kimon.png |
a.
Information and advice on emerging codes
such as the IGCC Green Code issued March 2012 and CalGreen;
b. Big Data - Data sharing (see chapter
member Kimon Onuma, FAIA, and Bulletin article “Where Were You April 17th?”). Onuma illustrated his software that links
diverse databases for the California
community college system to facilitate building maintenance and repairs. The key is to link them together in an
easy-to-understand program that anyone, not just a data scientist, can
access.
c. Fund raising by understanding the process
of State funding (i.e. schools), utility credits and crowdfunding, such as Kickstarter.
NEW
SCHOOL – The Millennials Don’t Care About the Grand Old Traditions of the
Profession and Frank Lloyd Wright
– They are in love with their Smart Phones and the information it brings
them. They live for social media. They are urban dwellers. They use public transportation. They are expected to be more
“civic-minded”. They aren’t compelled to
have kids, or to marry. Their needs seem
to be less, more modest. They want a
balanced life, not dedicating ALL to architecture.
Those already well along in
the profession don’t need to be left behind.
We’re already ‘on board’ in the information age. We’re embracing much of
the new technology. We love it. Can we take the giant leap, forming a “New School”
of architects that embrace information to make truly INFORMED DECISIONS FOR OUR
CLIENTS. Achievement will take huge
investments of time and technology. To
pull it off will require:
- Leadership
- Clear goals
- Cooperation and collaboration to
share information
- Massive funding
Possibilities:
Option 1 – Big Firms Provide
the Leadership - The
largest firms might be able ‘grab’ the future through their leadership and
collaboration with other large firms and builders.
Option 2 – AIA Provides
the Leadership, Gets Public Grants, Shares Information with Members - It will never happen. AIA best serves small practitioners. Most small firms cling to the dreams of the
“Old School”. The big firms don’t need
AIA. Plus AIA’s leadership
changes every year, therefore lacking continuity of vision. AIA leadership has all the challenges of a
truly diverse board, representing all the diversity of our nation and
International members.
Option 3 – Academia - Public schools won’t have the
funds. Private schools might. But will petty in-fighting in academia hold
them back. They’ve demonstrated
leadership with 3D printers, but using this technology for more than model
building is a long ways off.
Option 4 – Silicon Valley and the Technologists Discover
Architecture – Someone’s
going to realize that with construction as 20% of our economy, there’s money to
be made by applying the same tools of Big Data to our industry is going to make
money.
I’ll put my money on Silicon
Valley and the Technologists.
Architects can tell them what information is needed for intelligent
design, and to provide interface with our industry. And so far, we’re protected by “levees” in
the words of Jaron Lanier. Levees are
regulations, the Practice Act.
